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Wednesday 22 May 2013

Singularity

No, this is not a post about dating, and no, its not about cosmic phenomena or the love poems I wrote to my wife with the same name (don't ask) . Its about our next evolutionary step. I mentioned it a bit in my previous post where quoted "rapture of the nerds".

Human singularity or super-intelligence:  what is it really?  Wikipedia lists it under technical singularity, and that it is a mixture of man and machine to a point where we move to the next step of evolution through super-intelligence. It goes over the history and does a great job of explaining the basic concepts. (Wikipedia is just getting better over the years, and despite critics, has become this wealth of decent information.) But in short it is our use of machine intelligence to increase our own. Over the centuries the mind hasn't changed, but computers have, so the Singularity will be that point where computers have gotten so much better at thinking they help us past that point of the unknown. And our technical development will move even faster then it does now, so much so we will be masters of the Universe, and thinking back to before the Singularity will be like looking back at early hominids.

Whether its a meld of human and machine, or we have machines work for us, (There is also the debate on it involving nanotechnology, but that has been argued that it would involve super-intelligence) its a point where we can no longer predict what will happen after it.  Predictions of when it suppose to happen go from 5 years to 100, and some even give a date of 2040. When you think about it though, and you look around, it doesn't even seem possible in 30 years. Hell, the way things are going I don't see it happening in the next 100 years. Well what's going on? If you look at the rate of technological growth we should be there soon, but something is slowing us down. Hell we should be on Mars already, or continued to explore the moon.

It could be a lack of resources, at least in the terms of space exploration, but as technology marches on we find alternative materials to do the same thing we have done in the past. So, what else? No, its not Windows, despite what Year Zero says.

Most major innovative shifts in the last century have been to fill a need, but at the same time there was an urgency. War, disease, mass demand, all played important parts in invention. You can see it today, with the push to cleaner energy, of course its slow as hell because all the oil hasn't quite dried up, and developing nations (most of the world) don't give a rats ass about the environment, or can't afford to. When the need is great, as in War, then monetary thoughts are pushed aside for a working solution and advancement that insures victory. Or the massive consumer demand for a particular product (smartphones) thus insuring monetary momentum in funding research and development.
Indeed, pay-off's and success during these time period also lend its simultaneous to other R&D and all of science and technology benefits.

And the opposite is true as well; during times of peace (relative) or economic recession (there are theories that one is responsible for the other because we really don't know how to finance peace), you see a drop in innovation and research in general. An example is world wide cuts in research grants (sucks to be a research biologist these days).

All this is really a lack of long term thinking, the end result is a slow down towards the Singularity event, and true lasting innovation.
So what do we do, how do we speed up progress?

We don't, not unless you can change everyone's thinking, or we bring back the monarchy, and they promise to bring it about. Because the way the world works now, we can't think beyond the next 10 years. Oh sure with better education and a better society, we could start thinking maybe 20 years ahead but not dynamically. We need long term projects, a return to basic 'what if' research. To do that we need people in power for a long time, and a continuing flow of income. While competition/free business economy does work to an extent, its very limited and it is short sighted, it only works for quick innovation, or most likely, adaptations of existing elements. Even if we never reach singularity, we need to be constantly striving to ask the important questions and to gain knowledge, even if its for the sake of knowledge.

You may say who cares, who gives a fuck if we end up like the Borg or the Confederation, why should I care if I, or my grand kids, make it to the next step. Well besides the fact that we could actually save this planet, it will lead us out to the stars and insure the survivability of the human race. Also, everyone will have cool super powers and live forever (actually not sure about the super powers, but who knows) with super-intelligence problems of disease, the environment, resources, women, and space exploration  will all be solved (kidding about women they work just fine). The truth is, and by definition, we really aren't sure what happens after that point, that event horizon of the singularity, but isn't being human wanting to see what's on the other side?

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